Interesting perspective. Two niggles regarding 'I never tire of pointing out the degree to which national power depends on demographic and economic foundations':
1. "China’s dynamism will be increasingly hobbled by its shrinking working-age population"? If a shrinking working age population hobbles China, it won't begin to affect the workforce until 2049, since that is when the population dip reaches the labor market. By then, China will be a moderately prosperous society with 99% home ownership, 60% with college degrees, 6,000,000 installed robots (on current trend) and a Gini Coefficient of 0.27.
2. "The degree of America’s domination of cutting-edge fields—tech, AI, biotech, space…—has become downright embarrassing”. It may embarrass the Europeans, but the Chinese dominate the USA completely in those fields.
The UN's latest world population prospects (2024 edition) shows China's 15 to 59 population declining from about 900 M to about 700 M between now and 2050, and continuing to decline thereafter. The Chinese labour force is being affected now.
Perhaps you assumed retirement at 65, not 60, in China.
> The U.S. economy is now 50% bigger than the EU economy. A decade ago, these two economies were about equal in size. Bear in mind, the UK only made up about 15% of the EU economy, so Brexit is not the main factor.
Whenever I look into this Brexit and the dollar -> euro exchange rate explain most of it.
Excellent article. I agree with most of it though I would venture that the core of the European problem is a deep cultural malaise that translates into pessimism (vs. American can-do) and cultural anti-capitalism - I think there's a commonality between the crusade against ACs, Europeans mocking SpaceX for sending a Tesla into orbit, Barcelona degrowth protesters spraying tourists patronizing their city with water guns, and its paucity of startups and practical innovation.
The collapse of American patriotism and religion is ofc a very good thing and bullish for turbocharging America even further. God, King, and Country are inimical to EHC values that are the fountain of all intellectual and moral progress.
Agree re: cultural pessimism in many countries, especially compared to U.S. I think this partly causes and is reinforced by objective conditions that make investing in high-risk high-reward ventures less likely to pan out (market fragmentation, high taxes, consensual / precautionary regulation, triple whammy of expensive energy, flawed currency union and bad demographics depressing future market size..).
As IQs become very high political views converge to anti-authoritarianism, extreme social liberalism and bioliberalism, and economic libertarianism (albeit with government funding for science). Queerness will run rampant once large-scale human enhancement begins!
Very few people want libertarian economics with unregulated business and corporate entities doing what they please regardless of the larger social and moral damage inflicted on the rest of society. There are positive aspects of liberalism such as freedom of speech and press, but also corrosive social atomism and individualism, so there needs to be a balance optimally in any healthy, functional society.
I.Qs aren’t becoming higher though. Liberals are also into authoritarian control and manipulation of the general population through their woke ideology and various restrictive speech codes, legal or otherwise.
White Americans (the historic core population of the U.S.) are slated to become a demographic minority within. The next 25 years or so. Third world people create third world societies.
Certain sectors of the economy are growing for the moment but the overall society is in decline. ‘Growth’ isn’t always positive either. Cancer cells and cockroach populations grow and expand too.
Interesting perspective. Two niggles regarding 'I never tire of pointing out the degree to which national power depends on demographic and economic foundations':
1. "China’s dynamism will be increasingly hobbled by its shrinking working-age population"? If a shrinking working age population hobbles China, it won't begin to affect the workforce until 2049, since that is when the population dip reaches the labor market. By then, China will be a moderately prosperous society with 99% home ownership, 60% with college degrees, 6,000,000 installed robots (on current trend) and a Gini Coefficient of 0.27.
2. "The degree of America’s domination of cutting-edge fields—tech, AI, biotech, space…—has become downright embarrassing”. It may embarrass the Europeans, but the Chinese dominate the USA completely in those fields.
Do you have projections for China's working-age / workforce size into the future? My understanding is that it was already shrinking.
The fall in births is recent and will not affect the labor force for 25 years.
The UN's latest world population prospects (2024 edition) shows China's 15 to 59 population declining from about 900 M to about 700 M between now and 2050, and continuing to decline thereafter. The Chinese labour force is being affected now.
Perhaps you assumed retirement at 65, not 60, in China.
Your first point is true but your second is not.
How about Israel and Singapore? They are doing well. They are small though. Anyway, I think that AI will drive huge economic growth.
Both will do well as hubs. Singapore's fertility rate is catastrophic (kept Lee Kuan Yew up at night in his final years).
Still Singapore can brain drain China for a long time.
Singapore is an IQ shredder. Israel is the opposite, the only high IQ high TFR country.
Still Singapore can brain drain China for a long time.
> The U.S. economy is now 50% bigger than the EU economy. A decade ago, these two economies were about equal in size. Bear in mind, the UK only made up about 15% of the EU economy, so Brexit is not the main factor.
Whenever I look into this Brexit and the dollar -> euro exchange rate explain most of it.
Nope. Is year on year higher US growth adding up over almost two decades. (The euro is currently valued slightly higher than the dollar.)
You said a decade. Now it’s two? Is this measured in dollars, GDP is, isn’t it?
Excellent article. I agree with most of it though I would venture that the core of the European problem is a deep cultural malaise that translates into pessimism (vs. American can-do) and cultural anti-capitalism - I think there's a commonality between the crusade against ACs, Europeans mocking SpaceX for sending a Tesla into orbit, Barcelona degrowth protesters spraying tourists patronizing their city with water guns, and its paucity of startups and practical innovation.
The collapse of American patriotism and religion is ofc a very good thing and bullish for turbocharging America even further. God, King, and Country are inimical to EHC values that are the fountain of all intellectual and moral progress.
Agree re: cultural pessimism in many countries, especially compared to U.S. I think this partly causes and is reinforced by objective conditions that make investing in high-risk high-reward ventures less likely to pan out (market fragmentation, high taxes, consensual / precautionary regulation, triple whammy of expensive energy, flawed currency union and bad demographics depressing future market size..).
I hope we find a way to eliminate autism maybe through genetic engineering. Maybe ‘EHC’ types will be less insufferable.
As IQs become very high political views converge to anti-authoritarianism, extreme social liberalism and bioliberalism, and economic libertarianism (albeit with government funding for science). Queerness will run rampant once large-scale human enhancement begins!
Very few people want libertarian economics with unregulated business and corporate entities doing what they please regardless of the larger social and moral damage inflicted on the rest of society. There are positive aspects of liberalism such as freedom of speech and press, but also corrosive social atomism and individualism, so there needs to be a balance optimally in any healthy, functional society.
I.Qs aren’t becoming higher though. Liberals are also into authoritarian control and manipulation of the general population through their woke ideology and various restrictive speech codes, legal or otherwise.
isnt it the case that a lot of sino scientific outpout is fraud or atleast not up to high quality standards? or am i wrong here?
Chinese papers now most cited in world. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01705-7
White Americans (the historic core population of the U.S.) are slated to become a demographic minority within. The next 25 years or so. Third world people create third world societies.
That is not what we are observing. USA is growing and much more dynamic than relatively homogeneous European countries like Spain and Italy.
Certain sectors of the economy are growing for the moment but the overall society is in decline. ‘Growth’ isn’t always positive either. Cancer cells and cockroach populations grow and expand too.