Repronews #56: Will the next pandemic be AI-generated?
Pavel Durov's >100 IVF children; illegality of GM babies in South Africa; having children during PhD; China to lose 50M people by 2035; genetics of BMI & associated conditions; polygenic rare diseases
Welcome to the latest issue of Repronews! Highlights from this week’s edition:
Repro/genetics
Franco-Russian tech billionaire Pavel Durov is offering women free IVF using his sperm, claiming to have already sired over 100 children this way
Human heritable gene editing is illegal under South Africa’s legislation banning reproductive cloning
Population Policies & Trends
Cecilie Steenbuch Traberg writes on the challenges of having three children during PhD studies
China will lose 50 million people by 2035
Genetic Studies
Gene associated with body mass index (BMI) influence a range of conditions
Polygenic rare diseases: common genetic variants contribute more to rare diseases than previously thought
Further Learning
Jaspreet Pranu and other experts write on how to reduce the risk of AI being used to create a pandemic-scale pathogen
Repro/genetics
“Telegram founder offers free IVF if you use his sperm at Moscow clinic” (PET)
Pavel Durov, the billionaire founder and CEO of messaging app Telegram, has teamed up with the AltraVita fertility clinic in Moscow to offer free IVF to women under 38, but only if they use his sperm.
Durov claimed this year that he had already fathered over 100 children through sperm donation in 12 countries.
He now wants to “open-source” his DNA to make it easier for his biological children to find each other.
It appears that Durov does not intend to undertake legal or financial responsibility for any children conceived.
The AltraVita website describes this as a “one of a kind” opportunity to undergo free IVF with sperm from “one of the most famous and successful entrepreneurs of our time.”
The clinic website reads: “It is a very generous contribution to society from someone who wants to help those dreaming of becoming parents.”
In a post on Telegram, Durov said that when he first donated 15 years ago, “The clinic boss told me that ‘high quality donor material’ was in short supply and that it was my civic duty to donate more sperm to anonymously help more couples.”
There are other cases of sperm donors seeking to produce large amounts of children. In 2023, Dutch courts banned Jonathan Meijr from donating sperm, following claims that he fathered over 500 children. The story was covered in the Netflix documentary, “The Man with 1000 Kids.”
Durov wants to encourage sperm donation more widely. He said in a Telegram post: “The shortage of healthy sperm has become an increasingly serious issue worldwide, and I’m proud that I did my part to alleviate it … I also want to destigmatize the whole notion of sperm donation and incentivize more healthy men to do it, so that families struggling to have kids can enjoy more options.”
“Ethics changes notwithstanding, creating genetically modified babies is still illegal in South Africa” (Daily Maverick)
South Africa’s National Health Research Ethics Council (NHREC) has confirmed that heritable human genome editing remains illegal in the country.
Questions regarding germline gene editing’s legality emerged with the latest version South African Ethics in Health Research Guidelines condoning the practice under certain conditions.
NHREC Chair Penelope Engel-Hills said “neither the National Health Act [of 2003], nor the 2024 National Guidelines on Ethics in Health Research, legalize HHGE for use in therapy in any way.”
South Africa’s 2003 National Health Act bans reproductive cloning, which is broadly defined as “the manipulation of genetic material in order to achieve the reproduction of a human being and includes nuclear transfer or embryo splitting for such purpose.” Reproductive cloning is a punishable offense by a fine and up to five years’ imprisonment.
The new health research guidelines describe germline gene editing as having “significant potential for addressing genetic diseases and improving human health,” while also presenting “ethical challenges that require careful consideration and deliberation.”
The guidelines specify all research must conform with South African law.
Françoise Baylis of Dalhousie University in Canada and Katie Hasson of the Center for Genetics and Society (a bioconservative advocacy group) had drawn attention to the new guidelines, noting that a global survey of policies on germline gene editing found more than 70 countries prohibited the practice and none explicitly permitted it. (Therapeutic germline gene editing appears to be legal in Belgium.)
Dr. Susan Hall, the head of the Unit for Bioethics at Stellenbosch University (South Africa), said gene editing has the potential to achieve great things, such as eradicate certain diseases. She cautioned against the “slippery slope” argument that legalization of heritable gene editing would lead to “designer babies.”
“We cannot assume that opening the door for gene editing for clinical purposes, for the purposes of treating disease, is going to lead to creating designer babies,” Hall said. “The other thing that I think we should be cautious of is what we call the ‘yuck factor’ — that … we feel a bit gross and uneasy about genetic modification. That is not necessarily an argument against genetic modification … although we should, of course, be very cautious about risk.”
If South Africa were to become one of the first countries to legalize germline gene editing, Hall said she would be concerned about the potential for “helicopter research” whereby foreign researchers come to do research and leave without meaningfully involving local researchers.
More on repro/genetics:
“Super babies”: An interview with Orchid’s Noor Siddiqui (Times of London)
Fertility agencies accused of promoting eugenics with embryo selection” (Telegraph)
“Human genome editing: Managing technological risks through legal means” (Troitskaya)
GRASPing the risk: Managing complex patients in IVF” (PET)
Review of book on international surrogacy: Stephen Page’s International Assisted Reproductive Technology (PET)
British genetic testing company Atlas Biomed has disappeared, as has its customers’ data (PET)
Population Policies & Trends
“I had three children during my PhD: here’s what I learned” (Nature)
Cecilie Steenbuch Traberg, a psychology PhD at the University of Cambridge, writes on choosing to have children during her graduate studies.
Fellow students believed having a baby during graduate school was “career suicide.”
“The academic path is often framed as a strict sequence: first establish your career, then consider starting a family (or, as some scientist parents might say, making a ‘tenure baby’).”
“In my department, the only professors I knew were either men or childless women, and I feared that I would be labelled as ‘unserious’ about my career.”
“Mixed reactions from colleagues and peers underscore the systemic challenges that parents face, especially with parental leave. Deciding whether to take time off comes with pressures: you either lose months of progress or push through and attempt to work during what should be time off to care for your new baby.
I often faced near-impossible choices.”
Traberg took three bouts of six-month parental leave. “During each one, my papers lost relevance: new studies were published in my absence, and reviewers questioned why I hadn’t cited these papers. I wasn’t able to take on leadership roles in grant-based or industry-collaborative projects, because these roles required continuous involvement that wasn’t feasible during my extended breaks—breaks that my supervisor had fully supported.”
Children’s illnesses can also interrupt authorship opportunities, which are crucial to building up publications and career advancement.
“Yet amid the chaos, sleepless nights and seemingly impossible juggling of responsibilities, there’s an undeniable beauty to having children during your graduate studies. The demands of parenthood forced me to become laser-focused, making every moment at my desk precious.”
“And, more than just boosting my productivity, my children have brought a profound sense of perspective to my academic journey. The sting of rejection — be it from a journal, a grant committee or a conference—fades quickly when met with your child’s infectious laughter. Furthermore, being a graduate student, for all its pressures, comes with a level of time flexibility found in few other stages in life. … This flexibility has allowed me to be there for the small, yet significant, moments in my children’s lives—which I might have missed in a more standard 9-to-5 job.”
Traberg concludes that both cultural and structural changes are essential to create “a system that fully supports academic parents,” including by treating PhD candidates as entry-level staff rather than as students and covering parental leave and some childcare costs.
“China set to lose over 50 million people in population crisis” (Newsweek)
China is forecast to lose over 50 million people in the next decade as its population decline accelerates.
Official data from 2023 revealed births fell for the seventh year, in a row with deaths outnumbering births for the second year in a row.
The UN estimates China’s population will shrink 50% by 2100. Earlier this year, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicted an even steeper 60% drop.
Marriage strongly correlates with births in China and other East Asian societies.
“Policymakers are likely to step up the pace of reform as they take aim at the barriers standing between reproductive-age couples and their desire to build families,” said Ada Li, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
By 2035, China’s dependency ratio—the proportion of dependents to the working-age population—is forecast to reach 53%, up from 46% in 2021, according to a January report from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
In 2025, the government will raise the statutory retirement age for the first time to encourage older Chinese to keep working.
More on population policies and trends:
“These baby-chasing grandparents are turbocharging demographic shifts” (Wall Stret Journal)
Genetic Studies
“Genes associated with Body Mass Index influence range of conditions” (PET)
A new study suggests people who reduce their body mass index (BMI) can limit risk related genetic variants giving rise to conditions such as type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases.
Studies have found that numerous genetic variants can lead to an BMI and to diseases like type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, but the mechanism by which this occurs is complex.
Dr. Guðmundur Einarsson, research scientist at deCODE genetics in Reykjavik, Iceland, explained that “we know that these variants are associated with many diseases” and the question is whether “the effect of the variants is mediated though BMI or do they have an independent effect on these diseases.”
deCODE genetics analyzed genetic data from Iceland and the UK Biobank to explore whether the disease risks associated with obesity-related genetic variants are directly explained by BMI.
The study found that BMI genetic risk scores were significantly associated with the risk for fatty liver disease, knee replacement, and glucose intolerance. This suggests that these conditions are directly related to higher body weight and that reducing weight could significantly lower the risk of developing these.
For type 2 diabetes, heart failure, heart attacks, and stroke, lowering BMI largely, but not completely, reduced disease risk. There were differing degrees of mediation of conditions such as chronic kidney disease.
“This study highlights the critical role BMI plays in the development of diseases commonly associated with obesity, suggesting that reducing BMI could have a positive impact on lowering disease risk,” write the authors.
“Common genetic variants contribute more to rare diseases than previously thought” (Nature)
Rare diseases are illnesses that affect less than 1 in 2000 people. Around 6,200 rare diseases have been clinically defined, affecting 3.5-6% of people worldwide.
Rare mutations have long been thought of as the only contributor to rare diseases.
Genetic analyses of people with rare diseases now suggest that the effects of common genetic variants can stack up and contribute to disease risk. Rare diseases can be polygenic.
More on genetic studies:
“Novel genomic test shows promise to streamline diagnosis of multiple infectious diseases” (CIDRAP)
Further Learning
“AI could pose pandemic-scale biosecurity risks. Here’s how to make it safer” (Nature)
Jaspreet Panu and colleagues write the need to prevent use of AI to create pandemic-scale pathogens. Governments, AI developers, and experts biosafety and biosecurity should collaborate to minimize risk.
AI-assisted biological research shows great promise to improve human health and well-being, but could also be used to design pathogens.
Regulatory attention on AI is ramping up. The United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, the European Union, Japan, and Singapore have established AI safety government bodies.
Companies like Meta and Anthropic are investigating whether their AI tools can be used to create bioweapons, although there is no agreed definition of what those are.
Experts in AI, computational biology, infectious diseases, public health, biosecurity, and science policy suggest AI could enable pandemic-level death and disruption in the following ways:
Optimizing and generating designs for new virus subtypes that can evade immunity
Designing pathogen characteristics to enable spread within or netween species
Generating vast amounts of data on traits that determine how easily viruses can be transmitted
Assisting or completing protocols for the synthesis of human, animal, or plant pathogens
Designing genes, genetic pathways, or proteins that convert non-human animal pathogens into human pathogens
Designing proteins, genes, or genetic pathways in pathogens so that they selectively harm certain human populations (e.g., based on their genetic traits)
Modeling how diseases spread using pathogen genomic data
The authors urge governments to “move faster to clarify which risks warrant most attention, and to determine what adequate testing and mitigation measures for these potential risks should entail.”
More on human nature, evolution, and biotech:
Evolution
“Chimps tickle and wrestle in play to pave the way for teamwork: Six years of observations show that play encourages group efforts and eases tension between adult chimpanzees” (Nature)
Biotech
“White House report details the state of U.S. biomanufacturing capacity and proposes action by policymakers” (White House/GLP)
Agrifood
“More than 40 gene-edited crops will be available to European farmers only when the EU green deregulates crop biotechnology regulations” (No Chance to Food Crisis/GLP)
“Evolutionary innovation hints at ways to engineer efficient photosynthesis in crops” (Nature)
Disclaimer: We cannot fact-check the linked-to stories and studies, nor do the views expressed necessarily reflect our own.