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Arctic Wolf's avatar

Regarding pollsters, there is one exception: São Paulo-based AtlasIntel, which correctly predicted that Trump would win all swing states as well as the popular vote. (AtlasIntel was also the most accurate pollster in 2020). However, even AtlasIntel underestimated Trump's margin of victory in all swing states except Michigan, by a margin of 0.2-1.1%. In contrast, the predictions for Harris' results were extremely accurate (within 0.0-0.3%).

https://atlasintel.org/poll/usa-national-2024-11-04

https://atlasintel.org/poll/usa-key-states-2024-11-04

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Emil O. W. Kirkegaard's avatar

Maxim Lott posted the adjusted poll data here, from September 2nd. I asked him to post the updated results given election results.

https://www.maximumtruth.org/p/can-polling-bias-help-predict-the

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Random Musings and History's avatar

“Trump in any event does not oppose significant and continuous legal immigration.”

What about Trump’s support for the RAISE Act during his first term?

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Craig Willy's avatar

500,000 / year is still "significant," but indeed. Trump has spoken in favor of legal immigration and of green cards for graduating foreign students.

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Random Musings and History's avatar

I wonder if his Green Card statement was a simple ploy, or if he will later qualify it by saying that it’s only for STEM majors, especially those with high GPAs and from top schools or something like that.

500,000 per year pales in comparison per capita to what Canada, Australia, and New Zealand are accepting.

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Craig Willy's avatar

I'd be curious what his ideal immigration scenario / endgame would be, but actually I'd be surprised if he has one.

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Random Musings and History's avatar

I think that it will be a continuation of 2017-2021, honestly.

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Jack's avatar

Nice rundown, subscribed.

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Craig Willy's avatar

Thank you sir!

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