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Arctic Wolf's avatar

Regarding pollsters, there is one exception: São Paulo-based AtlasIntel, which correctly predicted that Trump would win all swing states as well as the popular vote. (AtlasIntel was also the most accurate pollster in 2020). However, even AtlasIntel underestimated Trump's margin of victory in all swing states except Michigan, by a margin of 0.2-1.1%. In contrast, the predictions for Harris' results were extremely accurate (within 0.0-0.3%).

https://atlasintel.org/poll/usa-national-2024-11-04

https://atlasintel.org/poll/usa-key-states-2024-11-04

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Emil O. W. Kirkegaard's avatar

Maxim Lott posted the adjusted poll data here, from September 2nd. I asked him to post the updated results given election results.

https://www.maximumtruth.org/p/can-polling-bias-help-predict-the

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